Fund Intelligence Dashboard
Real-time pipeline monitoring for federal asset forfeiture cases flowing into the USVSST Fund. Powered by conditional probability models, Monte Carlo simulations, and AI-driven research with 12 Tier-1 government and legal sources.
8-Stage Forfeiture Pipeline
Every federal asset forfeiture case passes through these stages before assets can reach the USVSST Fund. Our model assigns conditional probabilities at each transition based on federal data.
T = Transition probability per stage (Monte Carlo input) · ± = Confidence interval margin · mo = Avg. duration at stage
Active Case Categories
Cases are categorized by origin and apply category-specific probability multipliers. Crypto cases include ±20% liquidation variance due to market volatility.
Intelligence Methodology
Deterministic Data Aggregation
Continuous monitoring of 12 Tier-1 sources including DOJ press releases, Treasury OFAC, PACER court records, and FinCEN advisories. Each source is verified for freshness daily.
Conditional Probability + Category Multipliers
Each pipeline stage has a transition probability derived from federal data — DOJ AFP reports, IJ.org forfeiture studies, and Treasury Forfeiture Fund completion rates.
Monte Carlo Simulation Engine
10,000 simulation runs per case. Transition probabilities randomized ±15% per stage with category multipliers applied. Crypto category includes ±20% liquidation volatility. Produces P10/P50/P90 percentiles for deposit amount and timing using Gaussian duration variance per stage.
AI Research Agent + DPI Score
Gemini-powered agent with Google Search grounding for real-time case analysis. Deposit Predictability Index (DPI) computed from regularity (40%), recency (30%), and trend (30%) — requires minimum 3 deposits over 365-day lookback. Alert rules fire on balance changes ≥$1K, new qualifying cases, DPI drops below 0.4, and keyword matches.
12 Tier-1 Data Sources
Every data point is sourced from official government, regulatory, and court databases. Source freshness is verified continuously.
Back-Test Validation
Our probability model has been validated against 8 historical cases with known outcomes.
6 deposited (BNP Paribas $2.16B, Société Générale $596M, HSBC $475M, Standard Chartered $240M, Commerzbank $310M, Credit Suisse $136M) and 2 non-deposited (Iranian Oil Tanker Grace 1, Al Rajhi Bank) — all correctly predicted.
Measures calibration quality. A score of 0.0 is perfect; below 0.25 is considered well-calibrated.
BNP Paribas, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Credit Suisse, Société Générale, Commerzbank, Iranian Oil Tanker Grace 1, and Al Rajhi Bank.
FinBERT Sentiment Engine
Real-time financial sentiment analysis on forfeiture headlines using ProsusAI/FinBERT — a BERT model fine-tuned on 10,000+ financial news articles. Analyze DOJ press releases and enforcement headlines for market sentiment signals.
Model: ProsusAI/finbert via Hugging Face Inference API (free tier) ·
Results cached client-side · Not investment advice
Understand Your Exposure
If you are a USVSST beneficiary, the forfeiture pipeline directly impacts your financial planning timeline. Our intelligence platform ensures your advisor has the data to make informed decisions.